Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Know is extremely late to predict but 24 hours before we learn the Oscars nominations is as good as any other time, so here are my predictions to what AMPAS members could like according to all we have learned in the past month and a half.
In previous years by half January we already knew the Oscars winners with 90% accuracy, but this year is a bit more interesting as still believe that there could be surprises in tomorrow's nominations and in the winners, as there are too many good movies, good performances, good directors, and good tech achievements that deserve honors.
So let me do a brief summary of what Film Critics have honored. Best film is Spotlight with not so far second Mad Max: Fury Road and far third, Carol. Best director is George Miller with far second Tom McCarthy and third tie Todd Haynes and Alejandro G. Inarritu. Actress is Brie Larson with a far second tie between Saoirse Ronan and Charlotte Rampling. Actor is Leonardo DiCaprio with far second Michael Fassbender and still more far, Paul Dano. Documentary is Amy with far second The Look of Silence.
Then we have to consider the Guild nominations given by actual Academy members -against film critics who are NOT AMPAS members-. Too long to do a summary but in second left column you'll find a link to each guild post.
As we know the category could have up to 10 nominees; but not always all slots are used. With the great 2015 films believe that the 10 slots have a name but the complex voting scheme perhaps will result in 8 or less nominees. Nevertheless here is my best estimate.
The Big Short
Could fill other some spots
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
Straight Outta Compton
The Hateful Eight
I did not enjoyed much The Revenant but has outstanding cinematography; Spotlight was alright for the story it tells but no-way film is alike to All the President's Men as many wish it was -Spotlight misses what ATPM excels, tension. The Big Short story is one everyone should see, but the movie does not tell the story in a cinematic way -sometimes feels like a boring documentary. Still these three are a sure thing, will get a nomination and many speculate the winner is among those three. Then these three big movies are 100% US production while other films in the could fill spots section above are US co-productions and even non-US co-produced.
I wish Carol would be a sure thing but as the awards season evolves it has become clear that not many enjoy the film -perhaps is the lesbian story or maybe is the women-centered story, but no matter what the occult reason is, this is an impeccable movie that deserves many honors and now I wonder if will collect them. Next Mad Max was a film that surprised me as I like it much more than I could imagine with the high-engagement style George Miller gave to the storytelling style, so yes, wish film gets a nomination. I didn't enjoyed much The Martian, was boring for me and even do I really love Ridley Scott's work, I wished he gave story a more nerve-racking style, like a thriller (less like a comedy, LOL) but know film has possibilities. I didn't enjoyed much Bridge of Spies, almost left before the end as was too-much predictable (boring) for me. Liked Brooklyn was nice, entertaining with great performance by lead actress and the main supporting actress.
So, my best prediction is that the three big movies will made it plus the 5 more I talk about to have eight (8) nominees.
This category is a mess for me. Recognize the extraordinary work George Miller did with the last Mad Max installment and believe he deserves major honors; but then tend to NOT agree with the rest of the four "sure thing" that replicates what the guild and other awards have been nominating.
Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant
Tom McCarthy for Spotlight
Adam McKay for The Big Short
George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott for The Martian
Todd Haynes for Carol
Why a mess? Well, because there has to be a place for Carol!!! LOL But yesterday's DGA nominations assured Miller and McKay spot. If it was for me there will be no AGI as The Revenant truly deserves cinematography but nothing else, sigh.
Difficult one for the possible nominees and for the annual game the industry plays to place lead performances as supporting.
Brie Larson in Room
Cate Blanchett in Carol
Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn
Could fill other 2 spots
Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years
Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl (I know many place role as supporting but she is lead!)
Jennifer Lawrence in Joy
Rooney Mara in Carol (I know she will go to supporting but her role is lead!)
Carey Mulligan in Sufragette
Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road
Helen Mirren in Woman in Gold
Maggie Smith in Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin in Grandma
Blythe Danner in I'll See You in My Dreams
Emily Blunt in Sicario
Already said something about Ronan, Carol will not be what it is without Blanchett and Mara, so will comment about Brie Larson. She is good in Room BUT the lead role and the one that makes the movie is the child, Jacob Tremblay, he deserves a Best Actor nomination or well, according to crazy industry ways, a supporting actor nomination. Larson has some extraordinary moments (like the interview) so perhaps that's why many in the industry are honoring her for those minutes but why not a Supporting Role as she was supporting the child outstanding performance. Sigh.
My best prediction is the three sure thing plus Alicia Vikander (she really deserves major honors for ALL the movies that were released in 2015 and she is lead in The Danish Girl, as a matter of fact SHE carries the movie, TDG is her!!!) and for the celebrity value and a good-enough performance, Jennifer Lawrence. Still will not be surprised if AMPAS members react to good performances in good cinema and nominate Charlotte Rampling.
Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston in Trumbo
Could fill the other 2 spots
Matt Damon in The Martina
Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl
Johnny Depp in Black Mass
Jacob Tremblay in Room (ok, I know, I know
Michael B. Jordan in Creed
Will Smith in Concussion
Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies
My award goes to Michael Fassbender in the three-act play filmed as a movie, Steve Jobs! What a performance with theater qualities that translate very-well to film. Very engaging performance in a film that surprised me as was not expecting the story to be as it is nor the storytelling style to be so tense, engaging and raw, very raw. But industry believes is time that DiCaprio wins an Oscar so seems he is going to get it even when Fassbender and magnificent Cranston gave better performances. My best prediction is that Matt Damon and Eddie Redmayne will fill the other 2 spots.
Amy. No doubt in me that will win the Oscar because truly deserves it for the unexpected outstanding storytelling values, both visually as story wise. The other four spots will be fill by The Look of Silence, very interesting/unexpected Listen to Me Marlon, and perhaps Cartel Land and He Named Me Malala.
Briefly let's predict Supporting Actors
Best Supporting Actress: Here we could have to lead roles "strategically" placed as supporting by "studio executives": Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl and Rooney Mara in Carol. Then we know that Kate Winslet has earned a spot even do if you ask me, Fassbender is sooo strong that she disappears in Steve Jobs. Other contenders are Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, Helen Mirren in Trumbo, Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina (sorry but she ALSO was lead in that movie) and Rachel McAdams in Spotlight. Yes, I wish Kristen Stewart will get a nod, she truly deserves it for her outstanding performance in Sils Maria as we can't forget that she shared the screen with Juliette Binoche and she was able to do it magnificently, that is a major achievement in this young actress career, Bravo!!!
Best Supporting Actor: No doubt that who has to win the Oscar is Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies, outstanding spellbinding deadpan face performance, Bravo!!! Contenders are Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation, Jacob Tremblay in Room, Sylvester Stallone in Creed, Christian Bale in The Big Short, and Benicio del Toro in Sicario.
That's it. Next perhaps mid-February, will play the winner guessing game that many predict will not be easy as season has bring many unexpected surprises. Will see what happens with tomorrow's Oscar nominations, if they bring clarity or muddy mess to this awkward awards season. Sigh.