Sunday, January 06, 2013

2013 Oscar Nominations Predictions

In RED those who were nominated. As many of us, did really bad with director category; but the other categories were not that bad, however believe that my profound dislike for Beasts of the Southern Wild makes me not to think about this movie. Being objective is not easy when you have seen the movies. Sigh.


Next week we will finally learn the Oscar nominations so today took out my crystal ball to guess what they may look like. If you have been following the news know by now that there is heavy buzz about the new online voting problems and probably are wondering how these problems could influence the results. I'm estimating that there could be some unexpected surprises -especially in non major categories- as tech savvy members have to be the smaller percentage of younger voters that probably have different tastes in movies.

Up to today movies that have major buzz are Lincoln and Les Misérables with many foreseeing that Lincoln could be the one with most nominations (around 11); but if you review the only critic's tally Zero Dark Thirty and Argo have collected the most honors. Most interesting is that critics have not given honors to Les Misérables and Lincoln has only one win. However we can estimate that these four movies surely will a get a nomination in the top category.

As we know the Best Picture category can have up to 10 nominees if each gets enough votes to obtain a nod. As a viewer that have seen many of the frontrunners but still haven't seen one or two, my best guess to fill the number five spot is Silver Linings Playbook followed by Life of Pi in the sixth position. Still believe that maybe other indie films could make it like Moonrise Kingdom and even if I didn't like it Beasts of the Southern Wild could also make it. Still my huge hope is that Amour gets a nod in this category, but know that is a long shot.

These leaves us with some controversial movies like The Master and Django Unchained plus the possibility that blockbusters could be included like Skyfall and Looper. Other films among the 282 that qualified with some degree of buzz are: Holy Motors, Flight, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Anna Karerina and The Impossible.

Best Picture
Very Sure: Lincoln, Les Misérables, Zero Dark Thirty and Argo
Sure: Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi
Maybe: Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained
Long Shots: Amour and The Master
Blockbusters: Skyfall and Looper
Very Long Shots: Holy Motors, Flight, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Anna Karerina and The Impossible.

When talking about directors only a few years, in the 85 AMPAS awards history,  nominated best pictures and best directors coincide; still today IF best picture gets 10 nominees there are chances that the five directors could have their movies nominated. Then as we know Kathryn Bigelow has the most only critics honors and Ben Affleck follows far and both movies surely will get a nomination.

The Directors Guild of America will announce their nominations next Tuesday, so we have no help from them to guess which other directors could get nods two days after. Still general buzz includes Ang Lee, Steven Spielberg, David O. Russell, Tom Hooper, Paul Thomas Anderson, Quentin Tarantino, Wes Anderson, Benh Zeitlin and more, all with films that are also contenders in the top category. Most unlikely to get a nod is Michael Haneke, but many have included him in their predictions and of course I would simply LOVE if Haneke also gets a well-deserved nomination.

Best Director
Very Sure: Kathryn Bigelow (ZD30) and Ben Affleck (Argo)
Sure: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
The other two: Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) and Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Long Shots: Michael Haneke (Amour), Quentin Tarantino (Django) and Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence are the frontrunners in the best actress category and critics tally confirms it; the other three spots could include critics favorites Emmanuel Riva and Rachel Weiz, but general buzz goes also to, Helen Hunt, Marion Cottillard, Naomi Watts, Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith, Judi Dench, Quvenzhane Wallis and more. Helen Hunt has one of those roles that some consider to be leading while others consider supporting, so she's in both categories in my predictions as she is fantastic in this role. Don't believe that Naomi Watts has an Oscar worthy performance in The Impossible but buzz is getting higher for her, so she's in my predictions.

Best Actress
Very Sure: Jessica Chastain (ZD30) and Jennifer Lawrence (SLP)
The other three: Marion Cotillard (R&B), Naomi Watts (The Impossible), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Possible Spoilers: Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Rachel Weiz (The Deep Blue Sea), Quvenzhane Wallis (BOTSW), and Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)

According to critics and general buzz, Daniel Day-Lewis is the frontrunner by far; still he could be challenged by Hugh Jackman and perhaps by Denzel Washington. Other actors with buzz are Bradley Cooper, John Hawkes (great performance), Jean-Louis Tritingnant and most unlikely -believe movie and actor are so controversial- Joaquin Phoenix (even if he deserves the honor).

Best Actor
Very Sure: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Sure: Hugh Jackman (Les Mis) and Denzel Washington (Flight)
The other two: John Hawkes (The Sessions) and Bradley Cooper (SLP)
Long Shots: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Jean-Louis Tritingnant (Amour)

In the supporting roles categories buzz is dominated by Anne Hathaway, Sally Field and Amy Adams; the Golden Globes nomination gave Nicole Kidman buzz, but other contenders are great  Maggie Smith and Ann Dowd. Tommy Lee Jones is fantastic in Lincoln, so is Javier Bardem in his Skyfall first scene (not the action ones) but buzz tell us that Philip Seymour Hoffman, Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro are also strong contenders, the last not so much but included him in my predictions. If Django Unchained is not too much for Academy members then DiCaprio and Waltz have high chances to get a nod.

Best Supporting Actress
Very Sure: Anne Hathaway (Les Mis), Sally Field (Lincoln)
The other three: Nicole Kidman (Paperboy), Helen Hunt (The Sessions) and Amy Adams (The Master)
Possible spoilers: Maggie Smith (Marigold Hotel), Ann Dowd (Compliance)

Best Supporting Actor
Very Sure: Alan Arkin (Argo) and Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Sure: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
The other two: Javier Bardem (Skyfall) and Robert De Niro (SLP)
Possible spoilers: Leonardo DiCaprio (Django) and Christoph Waltz (Django)

Original and adapted scripts are not that easy to guess as WGA nods doesn't gives us much insight, but perhaps the adapted category has better information for us. Nevertheless non-WGA writers are the ones that are getting buzz for movies like Django and yes, Amour.

Original Screenplay
Sure: Mark Boal (ZD30), Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
The other three: Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master), John Gatins (Flight) and Quentin Tarantino (Django)
Possible spoilers: Michael Haneke (Amour)and Rian Johnson (Looper)

Adapted Screenplay
Sure: Tony Kushner (Lincoln), Chris Terrio (Argo)
The other three: David O. Russell (SLP), David Magee (Life of Pi) and Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Possible spoilers: Ben Lewin (The Sessions), William Nicholson (Les Mis),

Best Documentary

Category is really spread with many docs honored by critics and with strong buzz, but as we know only 15 are AMPAS qualified. Have seen many, so I'm guessing from the ones I have seen.

Very Sure: Searching for Sugar Man and The Gatekeepers
Sure: The Imposter
The other two: How To Survive a Plague and The Invisible War
Long Shots: Mea Maxima Culpa and 5 Broken Cameras

Some remarks

The Master has become a movie that seems American audiences, critics and the industry in general did not appreciated much; non-American markets tend to be highly positive about movie, so it's not easy to predict what will happen with this movie. Still I can foresee that maybe movie will not be honored but those that "crafted" the film could be nominated (Seymour, Adams, Anderson). Joaquin Phoenix is a big question mark as many believe he has not been forgiven for his past behavior.

This year have lost interest in the foreign language category as we know that France submission will have a nomination. The only way I could be interested again is IF France does NOT get a nod OR if Amour doesn't get nominations in other categories. BUT if the last happens and France wins I will be extremely upset. So better not to get too involved with this category (lol).

That's it, wont guess more categories and next Thursday finally we will know who got what and the next guessing game will began. Already have My Awards for this year (some of which I am almost sure will win an Oscar), but let's get into the second stage of the game to share with you all.


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