2017/2018 Key Dates
#Oscars2018 Foreign-Language Film: Today, September 25, submission from Singapore.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Extremely Late #Oscars2016 Predictions and Comments


So got convinced to write something about the Oscars. The catch was that IF the Cesar Awards make me happy THEN I was going to write about the Oscars. So here I am writing about what I consider perhaps the most unpleasant thing I could do today. Sigh.

Looking for inspiration was reading again THR's "Brutally Honest Oscar Voters" and gee somehow I agree more with one of the 2 ballots published this year (against 9 from last year-seems not many are willing to talk to Feinberg this year LOL). Yes the one where voter says "I rule out Leonardo immediately because it's a ridiculous performance" LOL!!! So true! But talking about The Revenant also recall what I read somewhere, the article about how great is the film campaign to win voters by promoting "How hard was to make the movie", which obviously is a terribly wrong reason to honor a film with Industry's top awards. There are so many articles that destroy this movie but will only mention one more, the one that says " ... The Revenant, which will very likely win three of the four major awards at the Oscars this Sunday, is a dumb, gruesome, boring, macho slog that’s actively unpleasant to watch." Alright, perhaps the only award that could be well-deserved is cinematography BUT gee film is so unpleasant that is hard to "enjoy" the magnificent use of photography, sigh. So that's it now you know I really disliked The Revenant. LOL.

Next, let's go to Spotlight and The Big Short. Both films tell important stories but regret to say that stories were told in such a not-interesting way. Spotlight was extremely far away from the newspaper reporters investigation genre benchmark, All the President's Men that won 4 Oscars in 1977; the later is a very intense/tense drama while Spotlight very-important message was presented so diluted (why?) that made film not enough dramatic or tense. Alright all those words to say: boring. The Big Short has been praised for telling a very difficult to understand story in a way that anybody will clearly understand, has even been called "user friendly" (lol). Well, perhaps is true but gee also was boring and in a way fragmented; but perhaps I'm one of those that understand the real "difficult" story and don't need the dummies version. Still, someone decided that film is a comedy and we have many film pundits remind us that "comedies do not win top award", so well maybe this trend will continue unspoiled this year.

In brief, NO, didn't enjoyed much The Revenant, Spotlight and The Big Short. If any of these top-three contenders wins top award I could care less (or IGS). Sigh. So let's close this segment by sharing what could happen tomorrow.

Best Picture
Will Win: The Revenant, The Big Short or Spotlight
Could Win: ditto
Should Win: the only one that truly deserves the nomination- Mad Max: Fury Road

Yes, believe latest Mad Max has the quality to earn an Academy nomination, the rest not necessarily. 2015 was considered by many the "year of women in cinema" thanks to the many films about women and with women in the lead roles. Suddenly the awards season began and later, the Oscars nominations arrived and everything changed. 2015 was no longer a women's year as most honored films did not include the ones with female stories and/or women in lead roles. Only 2 movies made it to the top Oscar nominations: Room and Brooklyn. To me the first is more the story of the most intriguing performance in 2015, the one that deserved a Best Actor nomination, the story of a little boy played by Jacob Tremblay; consequently, Brie Larson performance is more supporting to Tremblay than leading Tremblay. Yep, Larson really deserved a Supporting Actress performance nomination.

Then Brooklyn is left as the ONLY film with a woman story and a woman in the lead. I know that this year again many are complaining about how white are the Oscars nominees, but as I mentioned before everywhere I could, there are so many issues with the Academy members that race is only ONE of the main issues. I have to add age, sexism or gender, and homophobia. Mention this because some call Brooklyn a "silly" sentimental story and yes, there is other movie that also gets the "sentimental" label, Carol. Both movies have female leads and are stories about women, but those comments come from men and from those that can be synthesized as "white, male, 63-years-old average, non-LGBT" voting Academy members (yes, that's the average description of the Academy members). So now we have a better idea about the reason-why Carol got NO nomination for Best Film and Best Director ...

Best Director
Will Win: AGI or McCarthy or McCay
Could Win: ditto
Should Win: As Todd Haynes was not nominated, then has to be George Miller or Lenny Abrahamson that gave us two outstanding films

Yes Todd Haynes gave us a beautiful to watch movie about an unconventional romance, about falling in love, about doing something forbidden in a very conservative society, and yes, about infidelity in a broken marriage; the BIG problem was that story is about 2 women. You have no idea of how many films I can recall that have similar stories but all are about a man and a woman, some even went to get an Oscar nomination. But none is more relevant to me than awful The Kids Are All right that also is about 2 women, both have a "happy" ending, but have a big difference: Kids has a man portrayed in a positive way, while Carol man role is not portrayed positively. So why Carol was snubbed from top awards and Kids was highly honored with an Oscar nomination? You can search inside you for your answer, mine is absolutely related to homophobia. So sad, as Carol is a great movie with remarkable performances by the two lead actresses, great script, music, cinematography, editing and more, all masterly orchestrated by an openly-gay director, Todd Haynes.

Best Actress
Will Win: Brie Larson
Should Win: Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl or Cannes Best Actress winner Rooney Mara in Carol ... Oops! not nominated!!! LOL!

We have arrived to the "strategic" moves that have not-much to do with what happens in the film. To not diminish Cate Blanchett possibilities Rooney Mara lead performance was submitted and accepted as Supporting; me I wonder why they didn't do the opposite and send Blanchett to supporting and Mara to lead. Well, it's easy, Blanchett has more appeal than Mara, sigh. Then they also submit and was accepted, Alicia Vikander lead performance in The Danish Girl as supporting. Why? There was no chance she could win in lead against, who? Cate Blanchett? Jennifer Lawrence? Well, against well-known actresses; so Vikander has to pay her dues. There are big chances she will win as Americans seem to not like Steve Jobs, so Kate Winslet maybe has less possibilities than in UK's BAFTA's.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Will be VERY HAPPY if Alicia Vikander or Rooney Mara win. The good news is that's one of the first awards given, so I will be awake to learn live who wins.

On the opposite side of the scale we find Me (!) as I enjoyed Steve Jobs as a very interesting stage play in 3 acts with many outstanding dialogue moments that absolutely blew my mind. So no surprise when I find Michael Fassbender performance as the best of all with nods for Best Actor.

Best Actor
Will Win: Insufferable Leonardo DiCaprio role in The Revenant
Could Win: no one else, is locked
Should Win: Michael Fassbender or maybe Brian Cranston in Trumbo

We have to wonder why many pundits and fans consider this is the time and year of Leonado DiCaprio, so probably will honor more his career than this particular role, just the same than what the Academy did with Julianne Moore last year. As they like to honor careers and not specific roles then we have to wonder if that's what they are doing with the surprising nomination for Sylvester Stallone (!!!). Contrary to what many think, the Supporting Actor is easy to identify the best performance as Mark Rylance deadpan performance is truly very Scandinavian-style and deserves many honors.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: who knows or cares - ok, pundits say Christian Bale
Could Win: Sylvester Stallone (lol)
Should Win: Mark Rylance and if he wins, Academy members redeem themselves (lol)

Have to stop as have many things to do today, but believe you get the idea about why the Oscars show will be BORING this year as many DO NOT CARE who wins in the top categories and when you do not care about winners, then you, the viewer, will not get the adrenaline rush that will keep you awake for 3 hours of acceptance speeches and mediocre sketches from award presenters.  By-the-way and for your information, yes that's Boring by Bansky.

There is so much controversy with this year's Oscars but perhaps the most surprising to me came when producers announced that not all nominated songs will be performed during the broadcast. Not only the announcement told about who will not win the category Oscar but also gave credit (and award) to a performer that some say has very little (if nothing) to do with the song. Nope, not a fan of Lady Gaga nor Sam Smith, so not looking forward to their performances.

One More.

Best Foreign-Language Film
Will Win: Saul Fia
Could Win: Mustang (and surprise: Theeb!)
Should Win: Beautiful Mustang but wouldn't mind if Saul Fia wins or if any of the nominees wins as ALL are outstanding world cinema high quality movies.

2015 was an excellent year for World Cinema, much-much better than American commercial or not-so-much commercial cinema; there are so many outstanding French, German, other European countries, Australian, Latin American, Asian, and African movies that have seen and still have to see; but check the list of films submitted to this Oscar category and you will find many that are the best of the best from many cinema traditional and non-traditional countries

No, will not update LIVE the post but never do, so next time I write about the 2016 Oscars will be after the show and the American awards season will be over, finally. The unpleasantness of the American Awards season will be washed away, erased with some World Awards still pending and the upcoming Cannes Film Festival that to my big surprise, today learned about the first film for the 2016 edition!!!

Sigh. Sigh. Sigh.

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