Wednesday, February 20, 2013

2013 Oscar Late Predictions

As of yesterday at 5pm Pacific Time Oscar voting officially closed. As far as I recall current award season has been perhaps the most unpredictable in recent years at least for some of the top categories; but also has been controversial and if you follow top American critics it was impossible not to notice their passionate arguments against the possibility that Argo could win best picture.

Since the beginning I thought it was time for Ben Affleck to be recognized as a director and with only Oscar winners pending, we can say that Hollywood now accepts Affleck as a director as well as an actor. What I did NOT imagine is that his movie will be the top contender for Best Picture as there are other nominated films that are more rigorous works of accomplished directors. Sigh.

But for me the most unbelievable fact from the season is how Zero Dark Thirty disappeared in the conversations of many, especially those critics that chose film as the best of 2012, after the nominations were announced and how as days passed by Jessica Chastain also disappeared as a frontrunner. Wish could write what I conversed with some friends regarding the massive media coverage of the "controversial" scenes but will not as what you write in the net stays forever and surely will be taken out of context. So, suffice to say that still believe is the Best American movie from 2012 that tells an outstanding story of a tenacious woman.

Last year season was somehow predictable which made it less interesting, besides did not cared much about the odd nominees; but this year the unpredictability, the debates, the arguments pro/against and all the fuzz/buzz plus the quality of the nominated films (with some exceptions) really made me very tired. Tired of movies, films, cinema. So tired that stopped watching good movies but know that after next Sunday the feast of excellent movies that are waiting for me to see them will make me go back to feel my deep love for great cinema.

In less than a year the cycle will start again and perhaps then I could do what I have been thinking so much this year, stop covering/following the American award season! But time is always perfect to make you forget and know that if I'm still doing this blog thing, then surely will go on with the annual tradition of becoming disappointed by Oscar nominations and winners.

After venting let's go to the point, these are my predictions.

Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Could spoil win: Lincoln
Should win: Amour (but if does will be the FIRST time a non USA production or coproduction wins). Thinking only about American productions, then has to be Zero Dark Thirty.

Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Brave
Could spoil win: Wreck-It Ralph
Should win: To be honest, have not seen any of the nominated films.

Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Amour
Should Win: Amour
IF Amour does not win will be Extremely Controversial; but please recall that Weinstein is pushing Kon-Tiki that has a "happy" ending.

Very hard to predict BUT here goes my best guess.
Will Win: Ang Lee for Life of Pi
Could spoil win: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln AND David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook.
Should win: Michael Haneke for Amour. To not bore you again with my words lets quote someone reliable: "a creation of ultimate rigor and precision by a mature filmmaker who knows exactly what he means to say and how to say it".

Actress in a Leading Role
As Jessica Chastain "disappeared" from conversations, the possibility of splitting votes also did.
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
Could (still) spoil win: Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
To be honest if Lawrence, Chastain or Riva win I will be very happy! (lol)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables
Should win: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables
Good that is one of the first awards in show as is so predictable; but IF she does NOT win will be VERY controversial.

Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
IF he doesn't win will be VERY controversial; this year they should announce this category early as is so predictable that is not worth waiting for the regular spot, in the last 30 minutes of show.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained
Could spoil win: Any of the other nominees, except perhaps Arkin.
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman but Hollywood do not like The Master. Truth is that if De Niro, Hoffman, Jones or Waltz win is alright with me.

Original Screenplay
Will win: the writer of a very controversial movie
Could spoil win: the writer of a very controversial movie
Should win: the writer of a classical masterpiece
Okay, I'm not kidding, first is Quentin Tarantino, second is Mark Boal and third is Michael Haneke.

Adapted Screenplay
Another not easy to guess, especially when you have read the material that inspired the script.
Will win: Terrio for Argo
Could spoil win: Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Kutcher for Lincoln BUT somehow I don't really care who wins, for me the best is Magee adaptation of a great "unadaptable" novel, Life of Pi

Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could spoil win: The Gatekeepers
Should Win: Even when ALL five nominees are great documentaries with extraordinary stories very well told and executed, my choice is still Searching for Sugar Man

Film Editing
Will win: Goldenberg for Argo
Could spoil win: Goldenberg and Tichenor for Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Goldenber and Tichenor for Zero Dark Thirty
One sure bet is that William Goldenberg will win!

Highly predictable.
Will Win: Skyfall from Skyfall
HUGE surprise if it does not.

Categories that Life of Pi will win
Visual Effects
Production Design
Hard for me to admit, but yes, Cinematography
Original Score
Sound Editing (could spoil win Skyfall)

Les Miserables will win
Sound Mixing
Makeup & Hairstyling (could spoil win The Hobbit)

Anna Karerina will win Costume Design (could spoil win Mirror Mirror)

Short Films
Live Action: Curfew
Animated: Paperman (but I highly enjoyed Fresh Guacamole)
Documentary: Will win: Inocente. Could spoil win: Mondays at Racine

So that's it. Next Sunday the Oscar game will be over and can't deny that I'm very glad. The only thing that could change my current feeling is the HUGE surprise when Amour wins EVERYTHING!!!


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