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#Oscars2018 Foreign-Language Film: Today, September 24, submission from Kenya.
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Thursday, February 19, 2015

Very Late 2015 Oscar Predictions


As tomorrow we have the Cesar Awards I was wondering if should do Cesar or Oscar predictions. Decided to enjoy the Cesar awards hoping that my favorites win in every single category (or I will be very disappointed, lol) and to torment myself once again with Oscar predictions.

If you are playing an Oscar pool then you can get inspiration from what I think will win. In past exciting editions my accuracy rate has been very high, but this year the "boring" factor have influenced me, so use my predictions at your own risk (lol). More seriously suggest to ALWAYS consult several Oscar pundits to get a good view of the forest and then make your guess.

So with no preamble here are my predictions for ALL the categories.  In case you wonder, the "should win" is what I like, or believe deserve the award for that film, from the nominees only. 

Now that I have finished predicting and read what I predict see there Birdman has too few wins (no surprise - lol), think that Birdman will win more than the two (2) I give here and probably will come from tech categories or well, the top categories.  Nevertheless, believe that The Grand Budapest Hotel will be the big winner with the most Oscars, as for the last Oscar vote phase film was strongly promoted as the true American film.  Last, yes I do believe American Sniper will win some tech categories that many predict will go to Birdman.

It is obvious that this year the Oscar race is NOT easy to predict as in most categories race is close or really disperse, meaning: any can win.

Best Film
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Should Win: Big Hero 6

Foreign-Language Film
Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Leviathan
Should Win: Ida

Directing
Will Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Could Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman
Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Julianne Moore in Still Alice
Could Win: Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl (impossible, wishful thinking)
Should Win: Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone in Birdman
Should Win: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton in Birdman
Should Win: Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
Could Win: Edward Norton in Birdman
Should Win: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Cinematography
Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman
Could Win: Roger Deakins for Unbroken (mainly because is Roger Deakins)
Should Win: Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski for Ida

Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: The Imitation Game

Film Editing
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Boyhood

Production Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Mr Turner
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Visual Effects
Will Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Interstellar
Should Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Sound Editing
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: American Sniper (yes, from those nominated is the best)

Sound Mixing
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: American Sniper
Should Win: Whiplash

Costume Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Make Up and Hairstyling
Will Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Foxcatcher

Music - Original Score
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (is time that Alexandre Desplat wins)
Could Win: The Theory of Everything
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel or The Imitation Game (meaning Alexandre Desplat should win)

Music - Original Song
Will Win: Glory from Selma
Could Win: I'm Not Gonna Miss You from Glen Campbell ... I'll Be Mine
Should Win: Lost Stars from Begin Again

Documentary
Will Win: Citizenfour
Could Win: Finding Vivian Maier
Should Win: Citizenfour

Short Film Live Action
Will Win: The Phone Call, UK
Could Win: Parvaneh, Switzerland
Should Win: La Lampe au Beurre de Yak (Butter Lamp), France and China

Short Film Animated
Will Win: Feast, USA
Could Win: The Dam Keeper, USA
Should Win: The Bigger Picture, UK

Short Film Documentary
Will Win: Joanna, Poland
Could Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, USA
Should Win: Joanna, Poland

Some comments
There are about 60 films with nominations, I have not seen all. From those I haven't seen the one that pops-up is Timbuktu, a film that seems is a strong contender. Also haven't seen some of the short films (in the 3 categories), but have seen trailers and excerpts, so is from what I saw that I guess possible winners.

Check this one hour plus video if you are interested in the nominated short films.

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